Support for Anthony Albanese‘s Labor government has fallen to a record low in NSW, which could cost him up to four seats and a majority at the next election.
A Newspoll analysis published on Sunday revealed that Labor’s primary vote in the Prime Minister’s home state had dropped to just 30 per cent, marking a historic low.
The poll shows the Coalition has gained a slight lead in NSW with 51 per cent support on a two-party-preferred basis, compared to Labor’s 49 per cent.
Should Labor lose four seats in NSW alone, the Albanese Government would lose its majority and be forced to rely on the Greens or teal independents to retain power.
In Victoria, traditionally a stronghold for Labor, the party’s primary vote has also dropped to a new low of 31 per cent – below the national average.
While Labor still leads in the state at 52 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, the Coalition has closed the gap, trailing at 48 per cent.
The sharp decline in support for Labor coincides with the cost-of-living crisis and the Reserve Bank raising interest rates 13 times in 2022 and 2023 to a 12-year high of 4.35 per cent.
Additionally, the rise in support for a possible Muslim party in the eastern states suggests that Labor’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza may have alienated parts of its traditional ethnic voter base.
The drop in Labor’s primary vote is also closely connected to a decline in personal support for Mr Albanese.
The Prime Minister recorded a five-point decline in his ratings, resulting in a minimal gain for Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.
Labor has also lost popularity in Western Australia, which could potentially see the party losing up to two seats in a state that delivered double-digit swings to the ALP at the last election.
Its lead in WA has shrunk to 52 per cent to 48 per cent after preferences, down from 55 per cent to 45 per cent at the last election that saw four Perth electorates switch to Labor from the Liberal Party.
The Coalition now also holds a two-party-preferred lead among voters aged 50 to 64, with 55 per cent supporting the Coalition compared with 45 per cent for Labor. This marks an increase from a previous lead of 51 per cent to 49 per cent in June.
Mr Dutton is now viewed as the preferred prime minister by voters aged 50 to 64 for the first time ever.
Additionally, for the first time since the last election, the Coalition has edged ahead of Labor in the primary vote among Australians aged 35 to 49, the age group most likely to be struggling with mortgage stress and school expenses.
Labor won 77 seats at the 2022 election but gained the Melbourne seat of Aston in a 2023 by-election, marking the first time since 1920 that a government had won a seat off the Opposition at a by-election.
But the loss of four seats in NSW and two more in WA would reduce Labor’s House of Representatives tally to 71, on new electoral boundaries, which would be below the 76-seat threshold required for a majority in a 150-seat lower house in 2025.
This could see Labor be forced to scrap negative gearing for future purchases of investment properties, to satisfy the Greens, or introduce more ambitious climate change emission reduction targets, as part of a power-sharing deal with the teals.
The Newspoll also showed Labor in danger of losing the electorate of Robertson on the New South Wales Central Coast, north of Sydney, which has backed the winning side at every federal election since 1983.
Labor had retained this seat in 2010 when Julia Gillard became the first PM in almost 70 years to head a minority government.
