When the two finalists were shortlisted, I contacted both campaigns. I’d be happy with either candidate, I told them, but I’d appreciate a chat before my final decision.
Both called back. Kemi Badenoch was careful and guarded, and told me that she would not discuss policy. Robert Jenrick was warm and detailed.
He reminded me that, two years earlier, I had urged Conservatives to learn from the brilliant Canadian Tory leader, Pierre Poilievre. Rob had taken my words to heart, and had flown to Ottawa to find out what he could from that most successful of Right-wing politicians.
He added that he knew I was keen on ‘Canzuk’ – a closer alliance among Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK – and set out in detail his thoughts on how to deliver it.
Finally, he told me that he had heard my suggestion that Jacob Rees-Mogg be party chairman. The following day, he announced that, as leader, he would indeed appoint that most courteous and intelligent of Tories.
Two candidates, two approaches. Badenoch knows that she is ahead, and is understandably reluctant to take risks.
For example, the Thatcherite group Popular Conservatism sent out a searching questionnaire to both candidates.
After several conversations and deadline extensions, they published only Jenrick’s answers, for only he had responded.
I get it. With all the polls showing Badenoch comfortably ahead, I’d be advising her not to say any more than necessary.
Still, I like the idea of a leader who will schlep all over the country in pursuit of one or two extra votes. Oppositions need that kind of energy.
Two years ago, I had Robert Jenrick down as a pleasant enough junior minister, bright and diligent but not outstanding. Then he did something brave, resigning from the Government because he was sick of its broken promises on immigration.
Given that the Conservatives’ revival depends on regaining the electorate’s trust, that resignation should count for more than it does.
Since he declared his candidacy, I have watched Jenrick grow in every sense (except physically: he was an Ozempic early adopter). His eloquence without notes, his grasp of detail and, above all, his work ethic are extraordinary. Who is to say he has topped out? A man who can come so far in three months may yet grow further.
Is he, as his critics allege, too ambitious? Well, we could do with some hunger for office. Is he saying what people want to hear? Good: that’s part of the job spec.
My Reform-voting friends tell me that they are likeliest to be won back by someone who grasps that this country does not need to be ‘given’ its rights by European judges, someone who has a credible plan to cut immigration. All the evidence is that Jenrick, having resigned on the issue, and having pondered it deeply, has at least earned the right to a hearing from voters.
Of the 14 published polls I have been able to find, he outperforms Badenoch in 13. The most recent, by Electoral Calculus, suggests that, under Badenoch, the Tories would win 30 extra seats in an immediate election but that, under Jenrick, they would win an extra 57.
Polls are necessarily inexact, of course. People are not always good at predicting how they would vote in a hypothetical situation.
Still, the consistency of his lead across different groups is striking. Opinium has Jenrick best placed to defeat Keir Starmer among Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Reform voters – especially these last. And it is the Reformers who count. The Lib Dems barely increased their vote share at the last election, but they won many more seats because of Tories staying home or backing Nigel Farage.
Both finalists would do the job well, but Jenrick has put more thought into how to win, including robust proposals to reduce the state payroll, cut energy costs, lower income tax and build more (and more beautiful) homes in our cities.
Most immediately, he has ideas on how to be a persuasive leader of the Opposition, the job for which he is auditioning, and in which he must succeed lest all his policy commitments become mere opinions.
There is a great deal to be done. Party membership has collapsed from 260,000 when David Cameron became party leader to perhaps 100,000 now; money has dried up, requiring redundancies at CCHQ; candidate selection was late and shambolic; campaigning was lamentable.
If anyone knows how to make people want to become members again, it is Rees-Mogg.
Jenrick is very much the underdog. Most party members are understandably drawn to the ‘vibes’ of Badenoch’s campaign, and her excoriating attacks on wokery. So am I.
But what we need above all is someone with the stamina, grit and wit to rebuild, reunite the Right and win. Robert Jenrick is that someone.
Lord Hannan is President of the Institute for Free Trade.
