Things on the presidential level are looking worse for Democrats all the time. It’s easy to see why, for anyone smart enough to pound sand, the Democrats picked the worst political candidate since Oog the caveman ran for clan leader on a “banning assault spears” platform. Kamala Harris keeps flailing and floundering, and she just isn’t getting it done.
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Now it looks like Democrats are starting to accept the reality; that it’s increasingly unlikely that Harris is going to be able to pull this one out. So now, according to a Friday piece from Axios, they are instead focusing on trying to regain the House of Representatives. On the surface that might look like their best option, as the Republicans currently hold the House by a hair-thin margin. But it may not be as easy as the Dems think:
House Democrats’ campaign arm is warning colleagues not to “get comfortable” in the final weeks of the 2024 election, citing internal polling that shows nearly two dozen races within a few percentage points, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: It’s a somewhat standard tone from Democrats ahead of an election — and includes an 11th hour plea for cash — but it dovetails with widespread anxiety among Democrats about the closeness of the election.
Note the “plea for cash” comment. That’s SOP for politicians, of course. But that’s not the interesting part of this Axios piece. Read on:
Driving the news: The warning came in an update to House Democrats sent Friday afternoon by Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Executive Director Julie Merz, a copy of which was obtained by Axios.
- Merz wrote that while she would “rather be us than them,” Democrats’ internal polling puts 21 of 25 races rated as “toss-up” by Cook Political Report within a 3 percentage-point margin.
- “Now is not the time to take our foot off the gas, nor is it time to get comfortable with the enthusiasm we are seeing on the ground,” she wrote.
- Merz added: “I don’t need to tell any of you how important it is that Leader Jeffries is serving as Speaker Jeffries when it comes time to certify the election on January 6, 2025.”
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Wait, what? Read that last sentence again:
Merz added: “I don’t need to tell any of you how important it is that Leader Jeffries is serving as Speaker Jeffries when it comes time to certify the election on January 6, 2025.”
Why? What have they got in mind? When it comes to certifying the election, which will be done by the incoming Congress, what difference does it make whether it’s a Speaker Johnson or a Speaker Jeffries (shudder), if they are going to honestly follow the process defined by the Constitution and statute? Why is it important that Hakeem Jeffries be the speaker when this happens? What is Julie Merz driving at? What do Democrats have in mind, here?
As of this writing, 10 days before Election Day, the House is looking like a toss-up, with the GOP having a slight edge. On Monday, I took my best guess:
If I was pinned down to hazard a guess right now, as of this writing, I’d bet on the GOP holding a 2-5 seat House majority. But predictions are notoriously hard to make, especially about the future. In a little over two weeks, we’ll see how right – or wrong – I was.
That could literally change overnight. But at the moment, I’m cautiously optimistic.
See Related: The Art of Divination: Wargaming the House of Representatives
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It is, of course, belaboring the obvious to note that, assuming the presidential election unfolds as it’s looking like it will and Donald Trump regains the Resolute Desk, any chance of him implementing a substantial part of his agenda will depend on having a friendly, GOP-controlled Congress. Especially on budgetary items, as all spending bills originate in the House. Also, a Democrat-controlled House will almost certainly start the Impeachment Express up again.
The only indicators we have here are accounts from people who have banked their votes already; I’m hearing from a lot of colleagues and readers from red states and from conservative districts in blue states, that describe long lines to get those votes in. That’s encouraging, but we shouldn’t count overly much on Republican voter enthusiasm, as there are plenty of Democrats who hate all things Trump with a white-hot passion, and those people will be motivated to vote, too.
As I’ve been saying, it’s all going to come down to turnout. Get it done!
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