Left-wing commentators were already frothing at the mouth about Donald Trump‘s ‘America first’ trade policies before his opponent had even conceded defeat.
Patricia Karvelas, the host of the taxpayer-funded ABC Radio National breakfast show, suggested his plan for 10 to 20 per cent import tariffs would destroy the prospects of Australian exporters.
‘Given the U.S. is Australia’s third-largest trading two-way trading partner, those could directly hit local industries,’ she declared.
‘Tariffs are going to be a big feature of Trump’s trade agenda.’
This was on Thursday morning, Australian time, and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris was an hour away from conceding defeat, having lost the industrial states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin to Trump’s Republican Party.
The ABC orgy of catastrophising about a possible Trump victory was in full force on Monday night’s Q+A, as the panel of august experts struggled to comprehend the prospect of the Democrats losing their working-class heartland again.
Bruce Wolpe, an adviser to former Labor prime minister Julia Gillard who has worked for American Democrats in Congress, suggested a Trump administration would be reluctant to grant exemptions for Australia.
‘On the bilateral stuff, on trade, it’s going to be an early test on the tariffs as to whether Australia gets an exemption,’ the senior fellow at the U.S. Studies Centre said.
But these ABC talking heads downplayed a few facts.
Including the fact the first Trump administration in 2018 gave Australia an exemption from 25 per cent tariffs on steel and 10 per cent import taxes on aluminum.
They also neglected to mention the president-elect is primarily concerned about American trading partners selling them more goods and services than they buy.
In other words, he hates trade deficits where other countries dump cheap goods on American consumers and threaten their local jobs.
Having won back the Midwest states that backed Joe Biden in 2020, Trump has a mandate to punish countries that exploit their access to the world’s biggest consumer market.
But in Australia’s case, the Americans have a trade surplus with us. So, Australia isn’t dumping cheap goods on the U.S.
That should put Australia in the Trump administration’s good books – and give us a special advantage.
In 2023, Australia imported $65.1billion worth of goods and services from the United States.
This occurred as Australia exported $33.6billion worth of products to the U.S.
So, the fact Australia buys almost twice the level of American goods and services than it exports to the U.S. means there’s a good chance a second Trump administration would again grant us tariff exemptions.
And it’s not just me saying it.
Alexander Downer, Australia’s longest-serving foreign minister, has made this point too, in a column for The Australian.
‘Tariffs will be imposed unless countries agreed to liberalise their markets for American exporters,’ he said.
‘They say commentators misunderstand the Trump approach to tariffs. They should be seen as an ambit claim.’
Also working in Australia’s favour is the fact we have had a Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. since 2005.
This eliminated tariffs from 99 per cent of American goods and services exported to Australia, and made it easier for the Americans to export to Australia processed foods, fruits and vegetables, corn and soybeans.
Trump will also hardly be the first American president to impose punitive tariffs on nations that seek to flood the U.S. market with cheap goods.
Ronald Reagan, a former Republican occupant of the White House, imposed 100 per cent tariffs on Japanese electronic goods and 45 per cent tariffs on Japanese motorcycles as a favour to Harley-Davidson.
The actor from California had more punishing tariffs than Trump is even proposing and he was hailed as a champion of free trade during the 1980s.
In both cases, the Japanese made goods that were in direct competition with American manufacturers, and the Reagan administration just wanted a fairer deal for American companies wanting to export their goods to the Japanese market.
Australia hasn’t exported Holden Commodores and Monaros to the U.S since 2009.
They were sold as Chevrolet SS and Pontiac G8 sedans, and Pontiac GTO coupes, for the American market.
Since Australian car-making ceased in 2017, Australia is no threat to American car markers anyway. But we do export aluminum and steel to the United States.
The imposition of tariffs on other nations that dump their goods on Americans means Australia would have less competition in selling their goods to the world’s biggest economy.
The United States was Australia’s third-largest trading partner in 2023 after China and Japan.
China, Australia’s largest trading partner since 2007, has form when it comes to tariffs – imposing arbitrary 200 per cent import taxes on Australian wine, along with a range of trade sanctions on barley, timber, lobsters, coal and more.
That had absolutely nothing to do with protecting Chinese jobs or industry, but was instead a blatantly political tactic from Communist dictator Xi Jinping to punish former prime minister Scott Morrison in 2020 for daring to call for an inquiry into the origins of Covid-19.
The Left claim to be champions of the working class – so their outrage over a U.S. presidential candidate advocating for protectionism to give workers a future is baffling.
Almost as baffling as their ignorance of Australia and America’s unique trading relationship that will most likely save us from tariffs.
