Save for local and congressional races, the fire vote in the state of Georgia IS the presidential race with its 16 Electoral votes. According to the RealClearPolitics Average, Trump leads Kamala Harris 49.4 percent to 47.7 percent, a 1.7 percent lead. Decision Desk HQ gives Trump a 63 percent chance of winning the state. The Cook Political Report rates the presidential race as “Toss Up.”
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Having spent some time in both Floyd and Forsyth counties assisting in Republican Party efforts to get out the vote, and reporting at the Trump/Fox News Faulkner Focus townhall event, the mood on the ground belies the measured feel of the polling. So have the Trump rallies and town halls. From the first rally of the year in March 2024 in Rome, to Sunday’s Macon event, the turnout, the enthusiasm, and the excitement have been YUGE.
So has the early voting, which ran from October 15 to November 1. By previous standards, the turnout was hugely successful.
Georgia voters exceeded the 4 Million mark on Friday, concluding the last day of Early Voting. To date, 4,004,588 voters have cast ballots either by voting early or absentee by mail. With 55.3% turnout, Georgians cast 3,761,968 ballots during Early Voting, and 242,620 ballots by mail.
As of Saturday morning, 92 Georgia counties have exceeded 50% turnout. This is unprecedented in Georgia history.
Of course, as RedState has reported here, here, and here, shenanigans are afoot in the Democrat-controlled counties of Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, DeKalb, Chatham, Clayton, and Athens-Clarke. Here is the difference: Unlike 2020, Georgia has tightened its election laws, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger seems to be on board with actually protecting the vote. It’s also a new RNC, and they have beefed up their election integrity times a thousand. While there are no doubt more tricks up the DNC’s sleeve, it is doubtful they are able to reach the level of fake water leaks and truckloads of ballots in the dead of night.
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The wildcard in this election: The Black vote. Elder statesman and de facto Black community leader Michael “Killer Mike” Render refused to endorse Biden for president when he was still at the top of the ticket. Since Biden has been replaced by Vice President and selected Democrat nominee Kamala Harris, Render has been radio silent and not issued an endorsement of her candidacy either. Instead, Render has chosen to encourage the community that their power lies in voting for local candidates and concerns.
WARNING: Language
Less than 24 hours till the election – make sure your voice is heard tomorrow, not just for the presidential election but down the ticket, your local races matter. #VoteHyperLocal #PlotPlanStrategizeOrganizeMobilize
🛐 #SongsForSinnersAndSaints pic.twitter.com/KWqs2U6FDk— Killer Mike (@KillerMike) November 4, 2024
Georgia has the largest percentage of the Black population, 33 percent versus 14 percent nationwide, and the “Chocolate City” of Atlanta has been pivotal to the Democratic coalition in the state. But Trump has made gains in the Black community, especially among Black men, much to the chagrin of the legacy media.
Future historians will therefore marvel at the fact that Trump has increased his support among African Americans since he was elected to the presidency in 2016. No serious person expects Trump to win anything close to a majority of Black voters in this year’s election. But months upon months of polls—from a welter of different pollsters—predict Trump substantially growing his share of those voters, particularly young Black men. In a recent poll of Black voters, 58 percent of Black men said they’d support Vice President Kamala Harris if the election were held today, and 26 percent said they’d vote for Trump—a percentage that would represent record-setting support for a Republican candidate.
Other forms of evidence—shoe-leather reporting, first-person testimony, 16 years of declining Black male support for Democratic presidential candidates, the presence of the Black manosphere—suggest that we are in the midst of a substantial racial realignment. If Democratic candidates have long benefited from Black magic—the near-universal support of African Americans—the spell has been broken for a growing share of Black men. Now Democrats, including the Harris campaign, are trying to figure out how to cast a new one. But the chances of stopping the realignment appear slim, because Black voters are both more culturally conservative and more economically liberal than the current version of the Democratic Party.
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November 6 will tell the tale of just how successful this peel-off of Black voters has been to the Republican ticket. Even Clayton County Black voters, who were considered the most pro-Biden county in 2020, are on the fence on who they will vote for.
Clayton County, GA voter: “I’ve never seen a president tweet so much out of emotions. So to say a female cannot run the country because of emotions… doesn’t make sense.”
Fun fact: In 2020, ‘ClayCo’ was the most pro-Biden county in all the swing states. pic.twitter.com/c90uCIkZDl
— Blue Georgia (@BlueATLGeorgia) October 30, 2024
So, it is doubtful that Kamala Harris will naturally inherit what was Biden’s largesse.
Stay tuned for more up-to-date coverage as we slide into election day. Join us on Tuesday at 7:00 p.m. for our Election Night Live Blog! Always spirited, informative, and no doubt, hilarious.
We end with Ray Charles, because, of course!
