Storm Sara has made a ‘remarkable change’ overnight as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico.
The weather event was initially on headed toward Florida, potentially upgrading to a Category 2 hurricane, but made landfall on Honduras as a tropical storm early Friday morning.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an alert today saying that heavy rain will cause ‘catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides‘ over Central America.
And by Friday morning, Sara was located just south of the island of Roatan.
The storm will likely turn northwest and drench Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. But forecasters said it probably won’t reemerge into the Gulf after crossing the Yucatan.
The NHC also noted that even if Sara emerges from the Gulf, the environment ‘is not favorable for redevelopment.’
Meteorologist Tomer Burg said on X that ‘the multi-model consensus no longer has Sara affecting Florida as a tropical cyclone—a remarkable change from just 2 days ago when models consistently showed a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.’
Forecasters said that while Florida has been spared, the lower Florida Keys may see fringe impacts of rainfall next week.
The unpredictable path of Sara has changed dramatically this week.
Sara was expected to reach hurricane status by 7pm ET Thursday, reaching a Category 3 status two days later and hitting Florida by Wednesday next week as a Category 2 hurricane, AccuWeather meteorologists predicted.
However, a newly released spaghetti model – so-called because the lines resemble strands of pasta – showed Sara curving through Central America through midnight on Monday.
But the wind speeds could extend outward up to 105 miles from its center, bringing rainfall to Florida even though the storm won’t directly hit the state.
Meteorologist Nikki Nolan told CBS News that despite the storm’s new path, ‘Florida residents should closely monitor the forecast updates as they come in.’
The NHC forecast said isolated areas of Honduras should expect up to 30 inches of rain which could lead to life-threatening floods and landslides.
‘Interests elsewhere in Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system,’ the NHC said on Friday morning.
‘Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as one to three feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras and Guatemala,’ the agency continued.
‘Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.’
The Caribbean Sea has been a hotspot for tropical storm and hurricane development this season due to its warmer-than-average temperatures that extends 300 to 400 feet below the ocean’s surface.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
However, the agency did predict earlier this year that there would be an ‘above average’ number of storms.
Sara is the 18th named storm of the 2024 hurricane season and is the third named this month due to record-breaking warm waters in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.
