A pollster widely renowned as the ‘Nostradamus of US presidential elections’ appeared to be at a loss for words Wednesday as he realized his prediction was wrong.
‘I don’t get it,’ Professor Allan Lichtman was heard saying on his since-wrapped election livestream, as Trump’s landslide victory became clear.
Lichtman, 77, has successfully predicted nine out of ten elections since 1984.
He was certain Kamala Harris would win, at first by a landslide, and then by a trickle.
But as Trump stormed to victory last night, Lichtman’s miscalculation was unavoidable.
‘I’m not doing any interviews, I’m done,’ he said.
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‘Good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow,’ the 77-year-old who predicted a Trump win in 2016 continued.
He then went full throttle against Trump, claiming the president won’t see out his second term.
‘You know what happens if Trump wins? He won’t serve a full term, he’ll turn it over to JD Vance,’ he said, citing Trump’s advanced age.
His son, Sam, appeared similarly stumped by the results playing out in real-time.
Lichtman thanked his fans for tuning in, before signing off for the night.
‘I’m heartened from all the kind emails I’ve been getting, a lot of people say we should keep doing this show.
‘I’m going to sleep all day tomorrow,’ he added immediately after.
At several points, the seasoned professor appeared to grimace and cradle his face -as he tracked the results on-screen.
Just last month, Lichtman came forward to claim Harris had met what he believed to his critical objectives for victory – telling CTV News how his made-up metrics are ‘based on a fundamental understanding of how American presidential elections really work.
The forecasts raised eyebrows – as it had come from a man who has accurately predicted nearly every single US presidential election since 1984.
Still, Lichtman has been wrong in the past – albeit just once, in 2000, when he erroneously predicted a win for Al Gore.
In that case, part of the prediction did come true, in the sense that Gore snagged the popular vote.
However, this time around, that was far from the case.
The ease with which Trump took soared to victory baffled Lichtman.
‘What? That’s not possible,’ he exclaimed. as projections showed Trump winning the Hispanic vote in all-important Pennsylvania.
‘The world has turned upside down, that’s all I can say,’ Lichtman added at another point – as more states turned red.
Massaging his temples well into the stream while saying there had been ‘nothing positive for Harris yet’, he went on to engage in a full-on facepalm when it became clear all seven of the states billed as being keys to victory had gone to Trump.
At that point, the visibly defeated academic thanked onlookers for tuning in, including those mockingly donating to the languishing livestream.
He went on to conceded his so-called ‘Keys [to victory] were wrong’ – pointing to his 13 keys method to victory that he said Harris had met eight of.
‘A lot of people believe the future of the country is on the line here, and the democracy of America could be a thing of the past,’ Lichtman concluded by saying, adding, ‘I don’t think that’s an illegitimate fear.’
‘I’m so worried about the future of our election, you know… democracy is precious but like all precious things, it can be destroyed,’ he added.
Lichtman’s 13 keys include things like incumbency, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure, and foreign policy success.
In an interview with the New York times, he said Trump had five of those metrics working against him – enough for the professor to incorrectly discern he would lose.
