Donald Trump saw a huge polling boost on Thursday, with a new slate of polls showing him leading in almost all the swing states. That comes as the race enters its final stretch less than a month before voters go to the polls.
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Emerson polled Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, showing the former president up in all but two of the states.
🇺🇲 Swing States Polling by Emerson
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 47%
—
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+1)
🟦 Harris: 48%
—
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+1)
🟦 Harris: 48%
—
NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+1)
🟦 Harris: 48%
—
MICHIGAN
🟦 Harris: 49% (=)
🟥 Trump: 49%
—…— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 10, 2024
In Wisconsin, Trump is tied, which could be good news for him given the propensity for polling to overstate Democrats in that state. In 2022, Sen. Ron Johnson overperformed the average by 2.5 percentage points. Polls also underestimated Trump’s vote share there in both 2016 and 2020.
Still, the most important result here remains the trend in Pennsylvania. Four of the last five polls in The Keystone State have Trump leading, putting him in position to take the state that is most likely to decide the election. For his part, the former president has barnstormed the state, holding multiple rallies there over the last few days. On Wednesday, he visited both Scranton and Reading. No doubt, he’ll be back many more times before the polls close.
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All of this tracks with a recent report from Mark Halperin, who was the first person to directly report Joe Biden was dropping out of the presidential race. He reported that Kamala Harris’ internal polling is dire and that Democrats are bullish on Trump winning at this point. That could change, of course, but for the moment, there is a palpable panic emanating from the Harris campaign about her positioning. That is likely what led her to do a series of what turned out to be disastrous interviews with friendly faces like Howard Stern and Stephen Colbert on Tuesday.
SEE: Election Analyst Calls It Like He Sees It, Says Harris-Walz in a Lot of Trouble
Halperin chastised his pro-Harris viewers, stating, “For you Harris people on here complaining that we’re talking about problems in the Harris campaign, you’re welcome to put your head in the sand about it. If you want to go watch MSNBC primetime and hear how great things are going for the Harris campaign, you’re welcome.”
“But if you want to understand what’s actually happening, we’re here to tell you. I just saw some new private polling today, that’s very robust private polling, she’s in a lot of trouble.”
That could change, of course, but for the moment, there is a palpable panic emanating from the Harris campaign about her positioning. That is likely what led her to do a series of what turned out to be disastrous interviews with friendly faces like Howard Stern and Stephen Colbert on Tuesday.
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WATCH: Harris on Colbert May Be Her Most Inauthentic and Cringe Interview to Date
The vice president and her handlers sense danger. There would have been no other reason for them to take the bubble wrap off Harris otherwise. Doing so doesn’t appear to be paying dividends, though, and this race remains essentially tied (i.e. within the margin of error in all these polls), conventional wisdom would say that’s good for Trump.
Still, Republicans can’t count on the same polling errors we saw four and eight years ago. Banking ballots via early voting remains a priority, but for now, the former president appears well-positioned. He’s certainly in a better spot than in his past elections.
