Things seem to be moving in the right direction, even if it’s by minute increments in the numbers, if the new Consumer Price Index reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for November is accurate.
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What the newly released BLS offering tells us is right in line with what economic experts predicted as the year wanes. [emphasis mine]
Consumer prices rose at a faster annual pace in November, a reminder that inflation remains an issue both for households and policymakers.
The consumer price index showed a 12-month inflation rate of 2.7% after increasing 0.3% on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than October.
Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI was at 3.3% on an annual basis and 0.3% monthly. The 12-month core reading was unchanged from a month ago.
All of the numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimates.
There’s a near 100 percent chance it won’t dissuade the Federal Reserve from a new rate cut next week, one industry tool seems to show, although the chances are much slimmer for the trend to roll into January:
The report further solidified the market outlook for a cut, with traders raising the odds to 99%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure. Odds of a January reduction also edged higher, hitting about 23%.
The news comes after the release on Monday by the New York Fed bank of its November survey of consumers’ outlook on the economy and their prospects in 2025 and beyond:
Dec 9 (Reuters) – U.S. consumers were bracing last month for higher levels of inflation in coming years even as they marked up expectations that their personal financial situations would improve markedly, the New York Federal Reserve reported on Monday.
Respondents to the regional Fed bank’s survey of consumer expectations in November see inflation a year from now at 3%, versus the 2.9% expected in October, while inflation in three years is seen at 2.6%, compared to 2.5% in the previous month. Inflation five years from now is expected to be 2.9%, compared to 2.8% in October.
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While households’ view of their current financial situation was stable and their sense of access to credit little changed, year-ahead expectations of those respondents who see a better financial situation jumped to the highest level since February 2020. Meanwhile, the share of those who expect to be worse off ebbed to the lowest level since March 2021.
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In other words, Americans are feeling more optimistic at the prospect of President-elect Donald Trump’s administration taking charge of the economy for the next few years. This is a developing story; RedState will provide updates as warranted.
