Despite the expectation that the next federal election is just around the corner, believe it or not Labor can delay said election until almost a full year from now.
That’s right, September 27, 2025 is actually the last possible date for a federal election to determine which major party forms government for the following three years.
While such a delay is highly unlikely – it would require a half Senate election before then to make it possible – it does mean that Labor would have time to blood a new prime minister if it decided Albo has to go.
Could that happen? I highly doubt it, but a former Labor powerbroker is now speculating that Albo is under siege as leaks and ill-discipline take over in the context of poor polling.
Opinion polls have tightened, with consecutive Freshwater polls now putting the Coalition in front of Labor.
Albanese’s personal approval ratings have also collapsed, and the Coalition leads Labor as the preferred managers of all the major issues that are front and centre during the cost of living crisis Australians are enduring.
Added to this today’s Newspoll reveals that Labor’s primary vote has collapsed in the twin states of NSW and Victoria – one time strongholds for the government – and with Labor struggling to make inroads in Queensland where the Coalition holds the lion’s share of seats.
These are the country’s largest states that will likely decide the next election.
Now Bill Shorten’s former chief of staff, Cameron Milner, has opened up the prospect of Labor dumping Albo for Treasurer Jim Chalmers, suggesting the leaked negative gearing story from last week was designed to pour a bucket of you-know-what all over Albo while making Chalmers look like a viable alternative leader.
‘Chalmers looked like a leader on the world stage…while back home Albanese just looked like a liar’, Milner wrote in a scathing column about the PM’s performance.
The Treasurer was on an official visit to China at the same time Albo was ducking and weaving questions about whether or not his government was looking at changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions.
In a series of interviews the PM came across as badly briefed and tricky with his rhetoric, not to mention irritated by the line of questioning.
While it is highly unlikely Labor would remove Albo as PM this side of the next election – even knowing that the poll doesn’t need to be called for nearly 12 more months – what may happen after the next election is a different story.
There are no guarantees Albo will survive for long in the aftermath of a poor showing at the next election, even if Labor scraps home as a minority government.
You can bet that the political sharks will circle if the government’s share of seats falls too far. Labor only needs to lose two seats it currently holds to lose its majority.
Labor changed its leadership rules to prevent a repeat of the debilitating leadership showdowns between Kevin Rudd and Julia GIllard between 2010-2013, when the party shifted back and forth between the pair only to lose its majority at the 2010 election before suffering a heavy defeat in 2013.
The new rules give normal Labor Party members (via a postal ballot) half the say in who becomes Labor leader, with the other half of the say had by Labor MPs and Senators via a caucus room ballot.
The process can take months, which of itself would be enough to save Albo from the ignominy of defeat this side of the next election.
Labor couldn’t afford to risk the damage such a drawn out process would do to the government’s standing were Albo to be challenged and insist on a procedural vote.
Further, the lay membership of the party is dominated by the Left faction, which gives Albo the numbers he needs against the likes of Chalmers, who is a member of the factional Right.
Tanya Plibersek is popular with the lay members and a member of the party’s Left. But she wouldn’t be capable of building the numbers necessary to roll Albo, and that’s before considering the parliamentary caucus where she has even less support.
However, a poor election showing could well change all of that, with Labor members and parliamentarians likely to question Albo’s ability to improve the party’s fortunes in the coming years.
The PM will hope to turn his political fortunes around and go to the polls either late this year or early next year.
If he goes late this year the aim will be to delay the federal election until after the Queensland state election to be held on October 26 when voters are expected to turf out the Labor government.
Albo will hope Queensland voters are more sympathetic towards federal Labor than polls currently suggest if that happens.
But the reason to hold off and not hold the federal election until next year include the hope that interest rates coming down when the Reserve Bank reconvenes after the Christmas break in February.
That likely leaves a window between late February and early May, if the PM wants to avoid his government handing down another budget before polling day.
