President Gustavo Petro’s plans to peacefully demilitarize Colombian rebel groups collapsed in disaster this week, as guerilla factions launched a violent war to control the vital cocaine-producing Catatumbo region of northern Colombia.
Petro, himself a former guerilla fighter from the M-19 movement, was elected in 2022 on the platform of achieving “total peace” by negotiating with the various paramilitary and guerilla forces that have plagued Colombia for decades. The model showed, at the time, at least some promise: In 2016, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the largest of the rebel groups attempting to take control of the country, signed a peace agreement with the government of Juan Manuel Santos that demobilized many of their guerilla fighters.
His proposal was simple: create an open negotiating table with a seat for guerrilla leaders and negotiate settlements to end the fighting, turning militarized resistance groups into peaceful participants in the Colombian democratic process. As part of the process, Petro laid out a plan for the expansion of Colombia’s welfare state to reduce inequality and create a higher quality of life in the rural areas that are the principal source of revolutionary activity. He believed that his background, combined with a sincere demonstration of good-will and an effort to resolve rural poverty and increase political representation—the causes for which most of the Marxist-inspired rebels claim to be fighting for—would be sufficient to inspire them to lay down their arms.
He is now facing the harsh reality that such is not the case. The swelling profits from the drug trade have made the guerilla life very attractive indeed for the leadership of the various rebel groups, which are now competing with each other and with Colombian organized crime for the territory and market share left open by the demobilization of FARC. The concessions offered by Petro’s government have been insufficient to tempt even one into signing a peace deal.
Instead, guerillas from the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the Greater Central State (ECM) touched off a brutal war last week in Catatumbo, forcing thousands of local residents to flee to safer locations. More than 10,000 have crossed the border to take refuge in Venezuela, reversing the usual population flow in the region; tens of thousands more remain pinned in their homes as the conflict escalates. Almost 100 people have died in the few short days since the conflict began, and many more will soon follow.
A deeply bitter Petro denounced the militants as having betrayed their founding ideals for the filthy lucre of narcowealth. “The ELN has departed from the ‘effective love’ theory of its founder, the priest Camilo Torres Restrepo, whose cassock I still keep, and turned to the paths of Pablo Escobar, whom they have chosen as their permanent guide,” he posted on social media. Having lost confidence in acquiring national peace by way of a settlement, he declared his intention to achieve it by force: “The ELN has chosen the path of war, and they will get war.”
On Monday, the president declared a state of internal commotion and economic emergency, which will allow him to make rapid changes to the deployment of the country’s security forces and to funnel economic relief to affected areas. Hundreds of Colombian soldiers have been deployed to Catatumbo, where they have been focused on evacuating citizens from at-risk locations, distributing aid and occupying key positions in the region.
Preparations for a major offensive are underway, but Petro is intent on ensuring that the military operations are accompanied by economic aid to devastated areas, which he sees as key to undermining the power base of the rebels and cartels in the region. “Victory is not found in the barrel of the rifle alone, but in true social justice, in opening opportunities for progress in the excluded regions of the country,” he said Thursday.
He will face major challenges both militarily and economically. The guerillas—having had years of relative peace to reconstruct their armed forces and rebuild their supply lines—are stronger now than they have been in many years, and pacifying them forcefully will be costly. Colombia’s armed forces are among the most powerful and professional in the region, but fighting in the South American jungles far from the center of state power in Bogotá is deadly for even experienced troops.
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Domestically, the political opposition is deeply discontented with Petro’s economic management. The national legislature refused to pass his extensive tax plan to fund the president’s enlarged welfare budget, but the declaration of a state of national economic emergency allows him to implement it regardless. The decree lasts only 90 days before the president can seek to renew it with the approval of the Senate, something that may be difficult if Petro is too aggressive with the redistributive powers conferred by the state of emergency.
Complicating the situation still further is the outbreak of another conflict between remnants of FARC in the state of Guaviare in southern Colombia. Various factions that split from the larger organization have refused to recognize the peace deal and disarm, and are now fighting to control the region and its resources, embroiling the country in a multi-front war.
Petro, who is up for reelection in 2026, donned the presidential sash with the intention of bringing peace to Colombia at the negotiating table. His plans in ruins, and having failed to bring peace to the country as a diplomat, he may well end his turn attempting to bring peace as a general.
