We spoke about that Iowa poll that dropped over the weekend that had Democrats going crazy and hanging their hats all over it, convinced it meant that Kamala Harris was going to win in a landslide because it claimed that Harris was ahead in Iowa by 3 points.
Advertisement
Of course, the problem with the Des Moines Register poll was it beggared all logic, data points, or polls about Iowa. As we noted, we would have to believe that Iowa suddenly shifted massively away from Trump +18 to Harris +3 within the last few months and that no other data or polls were able to pick up such a massive shift.
It had weird cross tabs like this. This made me laugh out loud.
No, for most people, as the old saying goes, “It’s the economy, stupid.” It always is. Plus, isn’t she the same candidate who was installed and didn’t get a single primary vote of the people for the position? How is she a protector of democracy?
READ MORE: We Need to Talk About That Selzer Poll in Iowa That Has Democrats Predicting a Harris Landslide
But beyond that there was the Emerson poll on Iowa that also dropped and rebutted it.
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds also noted how the early voting was all breaking to Republicans as well.
The Des Moines Register admitted that registrations favored Republicans in Iowa.
Advertisement
Then there’s also this little nugget from The NY Times that may explain a lot and skew polls against Trump.
Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.
Of course, this has been a continual issue in past elections, but this seems to confirm it continues, which again suggests the polls aren’t even measuring Trump’s full strength yet, even with him ahead in most polls.
The biggest indicator that Democrats aren’t close in Iowa is that the Harris team has made absolutely no attempt to go there, unlike how the Trump team has gone to New Hampshire and Virginia, which, while not swing states, could potentially be in play.
As Townhall’s Matt Vespa noted, citing Ryan Girdursky, you had an over-response bias problem in Kansas in 2020.
In 2020, Trump won Kansas seniors by 19, but we had a series of polls saying Kansas could be a nail biter in part because they were off with seniors by double digits. pic.twitter.com/vd5wwhdX7f
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 4, 2024
Advertisement
But the funniest comment on the Iowa poll came from the pollster Ann Selzer herself when she spoke with Mark Halperin to explain her poll.
Political genius Ann Selzer appears confused over what the “R” and “D” letters refer to in polling cross tabs pic.twitter.com/R7iADsusbT
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) November 3, 2024
Selzer had trouble reading what Halperin was showing about a comment on her cross tabs and asked what the “R” and the “D” represented. Many people laughed at that and that didn’t help her cause.
Bottom line? We have one day left before Election Day. Get out to the polls, if you haven’t already, and let’s win.
