Florida Looms Large, Has Connections With Much of the Field in Saturday’s 150th Kentucky Derby

Grab a bottle of the good stuff and break off some mint sprigs, as it is Julep time! It is the first Saturday of May, and this means the kickoff of horse racing’s Triple Crown is set for today. A full complement of races is scheduled Satruday, culminating in the biggest race in this country, The Kentucky Derby. And while this race – and the sport in general – is steeped heavily in bourbon and the 15th state, another one is featured heavily in this year’s post positions.

Looking across the field of horses, Florida figures prominently, be it the provenance of the thoroughbreds, the races that earned them a spot, or the people behind the steeds. One horse in particular – Catalytic – is owned by Florida racing figures, and trains and races in the state, as well. It won at Gulfstream Park as a 2-year-old and qualified for the field with a second-place finish in the Florida Derby. All told, five entrants qualified via Florida races, at least 12 horses have breeding or training from the state, in addition to staff and/or riders living there.

This year’s slate of horses looks to be divided into three parts; a clutch of favorites, a clutch of contenders, and then the longshots filling out the field. One notable absence is part of this year’s running.

The horse Muth has had a great season, running in six races with four wins and a pair of place finishes. But he is trained by Bob Baffert who is serving a suspension at Churchill Downs, after he was hit with the ban in 2021 when the winner Medina failed a drug test. The decision is murky, given it was over a steroid that is permitted in Kentucky, but it cannot be present on race day. Baffert contends it had been used externally to treat a skin problem, but the suspension has been upheld, with the racing commission citing other cases involving the trainer. Muth will be seen later in May, running in the Preakness.

For today, there are two clear favorites, with each challenged by pole position. The morning favorite is Fierceness (5/2), winner of the Florida Derby, but he needs to conquer a curse; he will be coming out of the number 17 gate, a number that has never delivered a Kentucky Derby winner. Meanwhile at 3-1 is Sierra Leone, leaving from the number 2 slot, which could provide an early challenge with traffic. He carries a 3-1-0 record for the last four runs, losing only by a nose one time. He has trained at Florida facilities, and additionally, his jockey comes from the city of Davie, in South Florida.

Others worth looking at today:

• Louisiana Stakes winner Catching Freedom (8-1) also won the Smarty Jones prep race and took third place in February behind winner Sierra Leone.

• Just A Touch (10-1) has been in the money a few times this season to qualify and has Triple Crown winner Justify as his sire.

• Forever Young (10-1) is a compelling choice. Though no Japanese horse has won the Derby, he is unbeaten and travels well, having won big races in Dubai, as well as the Saudi Derby.

• Leaving on the inside is Dornach (20-1), who actually edged out Sierra Leone in December at Aqueduct, then went on to win the Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream.

• Stronghold (20-1) could be interesting, with a nice 3-3-0 record, but he only has a single Grade-1 race. That was a victory at the Santa Anita Derby.

• Track Phantom (20-1) is a frontrunner who needs stamina. He went 3-2-1 in his first six starts, and then hit a fourth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby.

• Mystic Dan (20-1) has a win in a grade-3 race in February and last ran in third at the Arkansas Derby on March 30.

• Resilience (20-1) holds interest as the Wood Memorial champion, but also came in fourth behind three others in this field at the Risen Star stakes in February.

• Just Steel (20-1), is another horse sired by Justify, this one trained by D. Wayne Lucas, and has been competitive this season. He delivered three place finishes, behind the likes of Muth, Mystic Dan, and Catching Freedom.  

Rain is a possibility today, but sloppy track conditions are not expected to impact the betting line significantly. Both of the favorites have won in those conditions. For the full day of coverage and the full slate of 14 races, the broadcast from Louisville begins on NBC and Peacock streaming at 2:30 p.m. EDT. The Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. EDT

This post was originally published on this site